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The college football world was hoping for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, offering lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 against the spread, consisting of 3 fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to believe so. At least in two cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a specifically popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to total dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
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The enthusiasm for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market also. Remember that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
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Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the biggest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most enjoy from sharp bettors. The Athletic spoke to numerous bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely highly regarded gamer."

Even though respected money has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public gamblers are stacking on Texas.

"We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.

While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only video game in the area. We talked with multiple bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
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This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at the majority of sportsbooks and has actually approached somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at many sportsbooks. The overall dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of overall tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be shocked if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, but I presently invite any Boise State cash."

Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd possibility it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.

So why is OSU preferred?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this game before highly regarded money pushed it to the current line of -2.5. A a little higher bulk of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the four come kickoff.

"We did take some highly regarded cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number today. The overall has increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant move of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp gamblers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and immediately our Ohio bettors believed we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has been driven up to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."

He did note, though, that the book had actually seen considerable buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What triggered the line turn? Simply put, the sports betting action.

Despite the fact that Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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